Availability heuristic

"Heuristic" is from Greek heuriskein, "to find" (the same root as "eureka") — a rule of thumb for finding an answer quickly. "Available" here means available to memory. Psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman named the shortcut in 1973: we estimate probability by what’s mentally handy.

  1. noun · /uh-VAY-luh-bil-ih-tee hyoo-RIS-tik/

    Judging how likely something is by how easily examples come to mind.

    Why vivid, recent, or heavily reported events feel more common than they are — we mistake ease of recall for frequency.

    After the plane crash dominated the news, the availability heuristic made everyone overestimate the danger of flying.

    The recency effect feeds it; base rate neglect is the underlying statistical error.